The Cross-Strait Conundrum
Analysis by Gábor Vörös
With the election of a new pro-independence president in Taiwan, the current détente in the cross-strait relations is likely to fade away. If Taiwan chooses to proclaim independence, it could invite a Chinese invasion and possibly lose the support of the United States. While Taiwan is advanced both economically and militarily, China could fnd many ways to hurt it and impose its will on the island nation. Therefore, Taiwan has to contrive its own version of an anti-access/area-denial strategy in order to deter a Chinese invasion. As Taiwan is undergoing political changes in the coming months and China is starting to feel the weight of its own problems, it is worth taking a look at the political, economic, and foremost, the military balance between the two nations.