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Armament or détente? Iran after the arms embargo

Armament or détente? Iran after the arms embargo
2020-10-27 KKI1

After thirteen years, the arms embargo imposed on the Islamic Republic of Iran by the UN Security Council has expired on October 18th 2020. On this occasion, the Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade (IFAT) organized a panel discussion on the 19th of October with the participation of Erzsébet N. Rózsa, György Ilyash and Gergely Varga as experts and Máté Szalai as the moderator.

Gergely Varga presented the American viewpoint regarding the Iranian arms embargo and its historical context. In his opinion, Washington has taken unilateral coercive measures and has supported multilateral sanctions against Iran on several bases including human rights violations, support of terrorism and the nuclear program. The arms embargo imposed by the UN Security Council was just one element of this regime, under its so-called policy of “maximum pressure” the Trump administration can, and does use other mechanisms and instruments as well. According to Gergely Varga, the American attempt to extend the arms embargo did not meet with the necessary domestic and international circumstances, especially considering the US presidential campaign and the Abraham accords. In this situation we can expect further unilateral coercive measures by Washington in the near future.

In his presentation György Ilyash addressed three question. The first one concerned the strategic framework of Russian-Iranian relations, which he differentiated between the international and regional levels. On the former subject we can see several shared interests between Moscow and Tehran, primarily on the topics of strengthening the multipolar world order and the United Nations. On the latter level, cooperation in certain Middle Eastern and Central Asian issues can be named as the common goal, for example in the cases of Afghanistan, Iraq, or Syria. The second question concentrated on the economic relations between the two parties – although Iran is not amongst the primary trade and investment partners of Russia, the bilateral trade volume is $1.7 billion and the cooperation in the energy and agricultural sectors are still significant. The third important question concentrated on the importance of arms trade between the two countries. On this regard the expert emphasized that Tehran and Moscow so far have followed the constraints of international law in trading arms. In his opinion, after the expiration of the embargo, Iran will have to prioritize its military spending due to limited financial resources, so he expects that Tehran will focus on developing its air force, air defense and air transport capacity. According to Russian estimates, in the coming years the Iranian armament will mean a business worth approximately $5 billion.

Erzsébet N. Rózsa explained the Iranian views on the basis of three topics. Firstly, she summarized the speeches of the three leading Iranian politicians – President Hassan Rouhani, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif – who talked about the expiration of the arms embargo recently. They emphasized the principle of multilateralism and the importance of humanitarian aspects, which is in sharp contrast with the American narrative. Secondly, the expert elaborated on her opinion according to which we should not expect large scale armament, as Tehran is trying to play a responsible role in the international community. For Iran, the development of the energy industry (especially nuclear energy) is significant importance. Furthermore, the Iranian leadership has been seeking to set up its own arms industry since the 1980s, from which missile defense is lacking the most, so the international acquisitions will be limited to that sector besides technologies and smaller components. Beyond that Erzsébet N. Rózsa drew attention to the fact that the end of the arms embargo also enabled the sales of arms, which Tehran is likely to initiate with its regional partners. Finally, N. Rózsa interpreted the role of military development on the wider scale of Iranian foreign policy, in which armament is only used to maintain deterrence. Furthermore, the most important goals of Iranian foreign policy include withstanding the American maximum pressure policy and preventing isolation, both of which cannot be achieved with military means.

After the panel discussion, H. E. Hamid Reza Nafez Arefi, the Ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Iran to Hungary spoke up. In his remarks, he stressed the responsible role of Iran in the regional stability and security. In his opinion, the lifting of sanctions, and the expiration of the embargo gives back Iran its legitimate leverage. Besides the remarks of the ambassador, the experts also answered questions from the moderator and the audience, most of which concerned the American presidential election and the role of China.

For the full recording (in Hungarian) please click on the link below or visit our YouTube channel!