1. Regional cooperations have a growing impact on the evolving new world order.
In the era of an evolving new world order – or rather a nonpolar disorder – traditional rules and institutions of multilateralism are challenged and reset by the global East and South. While superpowers are preoccupied with political and military rivalry, middle powers are on the rise, and regional partners are giving way to multi-alignment and multiple connectivity projects. As norms and rules of international affairs are challenged, the weight of regional economic and political cooperations and evolving corridors – such as the Three Seas Initiative, or the Middle Corridor – is growing.
2. The Hungarian strategy of connectivity supports expanding regional and mini-lateral cooperation
Hungary remains to be committed to existing regional cooperations in its neighbourhood, such as the Visegrád Group, the Three Seas Initiative, or the Bucharest Nine. Despite political tensions within these blocks, cooperation remains strong due to the deep interconnectivity of economies and supply chains, mutual interests and shared values, and a strong historical track record. The Hungarian strategy of connectivity ventures upon further expanding mutually beneficial economic ties beyond its direct neighbourhood and establishing a multiplex cooperation network of markets, states, and international organizations, based on mutual respect and unbiased diplomatic efforts. These endeavours are crucial investments to secure supply chains and an uninterrupted flow of raw materials and industrial goods, especially in an era of economic uncertainty and war. Economies through the Middle Corridor in the South Caucasus and Central Asia emerge as key partners of Europe in its quest for strategic autonomy.
3. The Three Seas Initiative (3SI) is important from an economic perspective and in the event of a threat from the East.
Connecting the Baltic and the Black Sea region with the Adriatic was already an important interest of Polish foreign policy during the two world wars. The international order that evolved after the First, and especially the Second World War, however, made Warsaw’s strategic goal impossible to implement. The idea became a reality only in 2015 when the Three Seas Initiative was launched. It is a transport corridor that could become the artery of the region, with the Via Carpatia route linking the Baltic Sea to the Aegean. Based on the initiative’s Civil Society Forum, the cooperation could become an important factor in security policy, in addition to economic and energy objectives. Not only does it connect the North and South in terms of transport but it also creates an axis that can be rapidly mobilized in the event of a threat from the East, increasing the security of participating countries and Europe as a whole. However, unlike Hungary, where the inland section of the Via Carpatia is completed, not all participating countries are on track.
4. The Middle Corridor is at its initial state and poses both economic and security benefits for Hungary.
The Middle Corridor is an economic and transport corridor linking China to Europe, bypassing Russia, forecasted to play a crucial role in securing European supply chains. It had already seen a rapid, 65% growth of trade volume in 2023 and is set to skyrocket this year. However, it is still in an initial state, therefore, all interested parties, such as Hungary, could play a crucial role in its infrastructure through strategic investments. It is not just Hungary’s interest for the corridor to conjoin well-furnished Central European routes of transportation, as Hungary’s direct neighbourhood is in a critical location, in the juncture of the North-South and East-West transport routes, situated in close proximity to the Adriatic region, the importance of which is increasingly important due to the security challenges of the Red Sea. The other practical reason is that if the route were to cross the Central European area, the need for a gauge change would be reduced. From a foreign policy point of view, the fact that it would bring the countries of the Eastern Partnership and the Organization of the Turkic States along the same transport corridor serves the goals of the EU’s strategic autonomy and achieving a common foreign policy.
5. HIIA’s “3+2 Seas Initiative” explores interregional cooperation from the Caspian to the Baltic regions, with Hungary in its juncture.
Due to the nature of multiplex cooperation networks of trade corridors, international organizations, and economic partnerships, certain vertices might be identified, bottlenecks of the flow of goods, services, and ideas, and hubs of international connectivity. The Hungarian Institute of International Affairs launched the “3+2 Seas Initiative” to provide a platform for leading scholars from six countries – from Kazakhstan through Croatia to Poland –, to exchange and explore ideas on potentials and challenges that lie ahead of interconnectivity between the two corridors of the Three Seas Initiative and the Middle Corridor.
Written by Péter Pál Kránitz & Ágnes Vass
